SanDisk closed Friday at $1,214.83, down 5.09%. The move pushed its daily Relative Strength Index to levels not seen since April 2025. That matters because last time the RSI bottomed this low, the stock exploded higher, gaining more than 570% over the following year.

The memory chipmaker's current crash has wiped roughly 48% off its June peak of $2,354.39. Yet the technical parallel is hard to ignore. In late July, SNDK's RSI dipped to 33, its weakest reading since April. Readings below 30 signal oversold territory, so the stock now sits right at that edge.

What happened the last time

April 2025 saw the RSI dip below 30 before the stock launched its massive rally. Back then, oversold didn't mean instant recovery. The indicator stayed depressed for weeks during the bottoming process. A move above 50 would signal momentum shifting back to neutral. Another dip below 30 would suggest sellers still have the upper hand.

This week brings a fundamental catalyst into the mix. SanDisk reports fiscal Q4 results after Wednesday's close on August 5. Wall Street is expecting adjusted EPS around $33.28 per share, up from just $0.02 a year earlier. The company guided for revenue between $7.75 and $8.25 billion, representing 30% to 39% growth from the prior quarter.

The bull case versus the fear

Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target from $1,200 to $2,200, citing continued NAND supply tightness. SanDisk has beaten bottom-line estimates in four straight quarters. Yet the selloff reflects real fears. Analysts worry about a NAND inventory glut hitting in the second half of 2026, which could squeeze margins hard. That tension explains why Wall Street kept raising targets even as the stock kept falling through July.

On the price chart, a Fibonacci retracement drawn from the April 2026 low of $558.58 to the June peak frames the battle. The late-July bounce started at the 0.786 level near $942.89, then stalled precisely at the 0.618 level of $1,244.58. Friday's drop pushed the close back below it, turning that level into a critical pivot point.

Guidance for the new fiscal year, plus the Investor Day on August 13, will likely settle whether oversold means opportunity or just another pause before more pain.

Stock is testing support as earnings loom.

This material is informational only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.