TradingShot has identified a probable buy zone for Bitcoin (BTC) between $50,000 and $40,000, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might approach a cyclical bottom in the first week of October 2026. This analysis comes as Bitcoin has been consolidating for six weeks following a sharp drop in May.
Currently trading near $63,000, Bitcoin could see a decline of approximately 20% to 36% before reaching this accumulation range. This forecast is grounded in Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle structure, which has previously shown that significant market bottoms are spaced about 1,428 days, or 204 weeks, apart.
Historical Context of Market Bottoms
The recent analysis draws parallels with previous bear market bottoms witnessed in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In each situation, Bitcoin underwent a final corrective phase before entering what TradingShot refers to as the Realized Price Buy Zone (RPBZ), leading into a new long-term bullish cycle. The current market cycle could mirror these patterns, potentially bringing Bitcoin back above $100,000 following its next technical bottom.
Current Market Dynamics
Despite the recent consolidation around $63,000, the outlook indicates that Bitcoin may not yet have completed its correction. Recent trading patterns suggest a range-bound movement could precede a capitulation into the historically significant buy zone.
- Current projection of a decline to $50,000-$40,000 before recovery
- Potential recovery to above $100,000 post-correction
- Historical patterns of previous market cycles influencing the forecast
In a separate assessment, analyst Ali Martinez noted signs of BTC weakness after a rejection near the upper resistance at $64,500. This decline points toward a possible testing of the lower boundary around $61,700, a level that may provide support. For the bulls to regain momentum, reclaiming the mid-range around $63,700 is essential.
This material is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
