Onchain Data Points to Months of Flat or Lower BTC Prices in Late 2026

Bitcoin may face a prolonged period of sideways or declining price action through the second half of 2026, according to multiple analysts citing onchain metrics and macro liquidity conditions. Key technical levels near $49,000 have emerged as bearish price targets, drawing comparisons to the market bottom of late 2022.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, warned that short-term gains could dissolve quickly, with liquidity conditions expected to be the primary driver of cross-asset performance through H2 2026. Markets will closely track Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and ETF flows for any shift in risk appetite. For digital assets, renewed institutional inflows and improving liquidity could offer support, while elevated yields and persistent ETF outflows represent the main downside risks.

A 3.1% price bounce recorded over 24 hours, while Bitcoin was contending with the $60,000 psychological level, was attributed more to deleveraging activity than to aggressive spot buying. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared this assessment in a post on X, noting that broader onchain metrics do not yet reflect conditions historically associated with cycle bottoms.

Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of Alphractal, examined supply-in-profit trends and noted that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has materially altered short-term holder behavior. This shift contributed to a breakdown below the multi-year rising trendline on the supply-in-profit metric.

Wedson applied a set of onchain indicators — including short-term holder realized price, long-term holder (LTH) realized price, and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) — to identify potential cycle floor levels. The LTH realized price currently stands at $49,156, while the CVDD sits at $49,963. Both figures represent the bearish downside targets for the second half of 2026.

The CVDD indicator has historically tended to mark major cyclical bottoms. In November 2022, Bitcoin tested the CVDD line just below $16,000 before embarking on a sustained long-term recovery. The current setup draws a structural parallel to that episode, according to Wedson.

The analyst emphasized that these metrics are most sensitive to the movement of older BTC coins. Bitcoin is presently in what he described as an accumulation zone — a phase that could extend for months before any meaningful recovery takes shape.

The «post-halving cooling phase» scenario, consistent with these findings, was previously reported by AMBCrypto. Historically, Bitcoin has undergone extended consolidation periods following halving events before resuming an upward trend. The combination of tightening liquidity, macro headwinds, and onchain data aligned with pre-bottom conditions suggests H2 2026 could be a challenging stretch for both holders and active traders.