NYDIG Predicts Bitcoin Could Fall to $38,000 by October

Bitcoin may experience a significant drop, potentially reaching $38,000 to $39,000 by October 2026, according to a report from NYDIG. This projection is based on the possibility that the current market downturn mirrors the depth seen during the bear market of 2022.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $64,500, marking a decline of approximately 30% for the year and nearly 50% below its peak of $126,080 in October 2025. The cryptocurrency recently hit a 21-month low of $58,035, which caused a loss of around $40 billion from the broader crypto market in just one day.

Market Analysis and Historical Context

NYDIG's analysis highlights that the current market dynamics align with Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, characterized by peaks, subsequent downturns, and recoveries, which are loosely tied to the halving schedule. Previous bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 saw declines ranging from 75% to 85% from peak to trough. The firm projects that applying a similar decline from the October 2025 high would lead to a price target near $38,000-$39,000.

However, NYDIG has refrained from labeling this scenario as a definitive forecast. They noted that 2025 was the least volatile year for Bitcoin on record, which might result in a less severe drawdown compared to earlier cycles. They also pointed out the absence of traditional capitulation signals in the market, indicating that long-term holders have not sold off significantly, and there have been no major insolvencies.

Diverging Opinions in the Market

The $38,000 scenario is viewed as highly bearish when compared to other market analyses. For instance, K33 Research suggests that the recent low near $60,000 may represent the maximum drawdown for this bear market. They argue that the market could stabilize between $60,000 and $70,000 without dipping further.

This disparity in predictions reflects the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future trajectory, as investors and analysts alike attempt to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.