Nike Shares Touch 12-Year Low After Tariff Refund Masks Core Revenue Decline

Nike Inc. (NKE) shares fell approximately 1% on Wednesday, briefly touching $40 — a price level not seen since early 2014 — as investors looked past a headline earnings beat and focused on deteriorating underlying business performance. The drop came despite the company reporting fiscal Q4 2026 earnings of $0.72 per share, well above the $0.13 Wall Street consensus estimate.

The bulk of that profit, however, did not come from core operations. A $986 million one-time tariff refund, returned after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a range of import levies, accounted for roughly $0.52 of the $0.72 EPS figure. Stripping out the refund, adjusted earnings stand near $0.20 per share. Net income rose 407% and gross margin expanded 890 basis points on a reported basis — figures that analysts widely characterized as non-recurring.

Quarterly revenue came in at $10.97 billion, reflecting a decline from prior-year levels. Sales in China dropped 12%, adding to concerns about demand weakness in one of Nike's most closely watched growth markets. The combination of a one-time earnings driver and shrinking top-line figures prompted several major Wall Street firms to lower their price targets on the stock rather than raise them.

Goldman Sachs cut its target to $42 from $46 following the results. JPMorgan reduced its target to $47 from $52. UBS maintained the most constructive near-term view among the group at $48. Jefferies remained an outlier with a $90 target. Most revised targets now sit only modestly above the stock's last close near $41, leaving limited implied upside in analyst models.

Options market data reflected a swift shift in sentiment. The put-call ratio jumped to 1.14 on June 30 from 0.53 on June 26, crossing above the 1.0 threshold that indicates bearish put contracts outnumber bullish call contracts. The move signals a rapid increase in hedging and downside positioning around the earnings event.

Trading volume reinforced the bearish tone. Nike registered 73.89 million shares traded on Wednesday, its second-heaviest single session since early April, occurring on a down day. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, which tracks institutional buying and selling pressure, registered -0.29, suggesting large-money participants are not moving to support the stock at current levels.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern. The head formed near $47, with a right shoulder around $42. The pattern's neckline sits at approximately $39, roughly 3% below the most recent close. A confirmed break of that level on volume would open a measured downside target near $38, with a deeper extension pointing toward $34 and a further level at $33.

On the upside, bulls would need a daily close above $42 to signal near-term strength, with $43 representing a further tone improvement. A sustained move above $46 would weaken the bearish technical setup, and a clean daily close above $47 would invalidate the head-and-shoulders pattern entirely.

Nike's chart has now fully erased its pandemic-era rally, returning the stock to price levels last recorded in early 2014. Analysts note that head-and-shoulders patterns require neckline confirmation on volume before they are considered valid, and failed breakdowns remain a common occurrence. The $39 neckline currently represents the key dividing line between a potential base-building recovery and a further decline toward the $34 target zone.