JPMorgan Lowers Short-Term Gold Price Forecast to $4,500 per Ounce

JPMorgan has revised its gold price expectations for the fourth quarter of 2026, reducing its forecast by 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from a previous estimate of $6,000. This adjustment reflects weakening demand from key purchasing sectors.

Short-Term Price Predictions

The bank anticipates an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, with a potential rise to $4,500 in Q4. The recent adjustment in projections is significant and indicates a cautious outlook on gold prices in the short term.

Market Analysis and Trends

JPMorgan suggests that gold will likely experience sideways movement in the near future due to mixed signals in the market. The bank highlights a projected rebound later in the year, although short-term market conditions are described as “range-bound.”

• Current trading price of gold: $4,175 (up by 1.26% in the last 24 hours)
• Gold's decline from its all-time high of $5,600 in January 2026: down 26%

Comparison with Other Forecasts

Other financial institutions maintain more bullish positions on gold. Goldman Sachs predicts a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing increased sovereign demand. UBS and Morgan Stanley both set targets at $5,200 over the next year, but Morgan Stanley cautions that stronger ETF inflows will be necessary for such growth.

Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive

Despite the recent cut in forecasts, JPMorgan holds a bullish long-term outlook. The bank identifies two key factors supporting higher gold prices through 2027:

• Increased gold accumulation by central banks worldwide
• Strengthening physical demand for gold as a safe-haven asset

These trends are anticipated to provide a solid foundation for gold prices, ensuring stability even amidst current market volatility.