Galaxy Research Slashes CLARITY Act Odds to 50% Amid Senate Scheduling Crunch
Galaxy Research has once again revised its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, lowering it to 50%. This latest downgrade follows a prior reduction to 60% on June 5, with both cuts attributed to an increasingly congested Senate legislative calendar rather than any growing opposition to the bill itself.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, had initially placed the odds at 75% following the May markup session. Since then, each successive cut has mirrored the shrinking number of available Senate session days — not any shift in the bill's political support or substance. Despite the CLARITY Act officially appearing on the Senate calendar, no floor date has been scheduled.
The Senate departed for a state work period on June 29 and is not expected to return until July 13. Once back, lawmakers will have roughly four working weeks before a more extended recess running from August 10 through September 11. That narrow window is already crowded with competing legislative priorities.
Among the measures vying for floor time are the SAVE Act, an ongoing housing bill dispute, surveillance reauthorization legislation, and the annual defense authorization bill. Each of these competes directly with the CLARITY Act for the Senate's limited scheduling bandwidth.
"I'm again reducing my odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026, mostly due to the shortening calendar and growing competition for floor time from other items," Thorn wrote in a recent post.
The bill itself has already cleared significant hurdles. The House passed it by a decisive 294-134 margin in July 2025. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott then moved it forward with a 15-9 bipartisan vote during a May 14 markup session. However, the committee approved the bill with only two Democratic votes — a critical gap given that Senate floor passage requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to cross party lines.
Key sticking points remain unresolved. Ethics provisions and developer protections are still being negotiated, and talks specifically focused on ethics language broke down on June 9. In response, over 200 cryptocurrency companies sent a joint letter to Senate leadership in June, urging them to bring the bill to a vote.
Prediction markets reflect an even more pessimistic outlook. Polymarket currently prices 2026 passage at approximately 44%, a steep decline from roughly 74% in May, when concerns over the ethics language first began weighing on the odds.
If enacted, the CLARITY Act would divide regulatory oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC — a long-awaited framework for the crypto industry. Any delay past July would push resolution of this regulatory uncertainty well into the fall.
Despite the lowered odds, Thorn has not ruled out a potential July floor vote, making the coming weeks a pivotal window for the future of U.S. crypto market structure legislation.
