Galaxy Digital Cuts Odds for GENIUS Act Passage in 2026 to Just 50% Amid Senate Delays
Galaxy Digital has significantly revised its forecast for the passage of the GENIUS Act — the landmark U.S. crypto market structure legislation — cutting the probability of its enactment in 2026 down to roughly 50%. The investment firm cited mounting time pressure in the Senate as the primary reason for the downgrade, warning that the legislative window is narrowing faster than many industry observers had anticipated.
The GENIUS Act, formally known as the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, has been one of the most closely watched pieces of crypto legislation in recent years. Proponents argue that it would establish a clear federal framework for digital asset regulation in the United States, providing legal certainty for businesses and investors operating in the space. However, the bill has faced repeated delays and political headwinds on its path through Congress.
Galaxy's revised probability estimate reflects a broader concern among crypto policy analysts: that the Senate's packed legislative agenda leaves little room for a complex and politically sensitive piece of financial regulation. With midterm preparations and other priority legislation competing for floor time, the chances of a full Senate vote before the end of 2026 have become increasingly uncertain.
The firm's analysts noted that while bipartisan support for some form of crypto regulation does exist, translating that goodwill into concrete legislative action remains a significant challenge. Disagreements over key provisions — including the scope of federal versus state oversight and requirements for stablecoin issuers — have slowed committee progress and complicated efforts to build a consensus text that can attract the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate.
Despite the lowered odds, Galaxy stopped short of declaring the bill dead. The firm emphasized that a 50% probability still represents a meaningful chance of passage, and that any shift in the political landscape — such as increased pressure from the financial industry or a major market event that highlights the need for regulatory clarity — could quickly change the calculus.
For the broader crypto market, the uncertainty surrounding the GENIUS Act adds another layer of ambiguity to an already complex regulatory environment. Market participants have long argued that clear rules of the road are essential for institutional adoption and long-term market stability. Until Congress delivers that clarity, many large financial players are likely to remain cautious about deep engagement with digital assets.
Galaxy's updated forecast serves as a reminder that crypto legislation, like all major financial policy, moves at Washington's pace — and right now, that pace appears slower than the industry had hoped.
