Over 40% of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss, reflecting historical trends that may indicate a market cycle bottom, according to Fidelity Research Analyst Zack Wainwright.
As of now, long-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for more than six months, possess approximately 15 million BTC. This significant portion is underwater, aligning with past instances where similar loss levels coincided with market bottoms. For context, the supply in loss reached around 50% when Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on July 17.
Historically, Bitcoin has approached its lowest points when the supply in loss ranged between 46% and 56%. For example, in 2022, the cryptocurrency bottomed near $16,000, with supply in loss peaking at 50%. However, analysts caution that while historical patterns may repeat, they do not guarantee future outcomes due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
In addition, demand for U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained low. Despite three consecutive days of inflows recently, the average monthly inflow for these ETFs has not shown significant improvement. Glassnode reported that major institutional players, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have experienced a sell-off reminiscent of trends seen in 2025, with ETF outflows averaging over 2,000 BTC daily in June and early July.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $62,800, reflecting a 4% decline and nearing the losses accumulated from a recent rally. Traders are closely monitoring options positioning, with significant volumes concentrated at $62,500 and $56,000 for put options, indicating expectations of potential further declines. Meanwhile, bullish bets have emerged for targets of $68,000 and $79,000, suggesting a mixed outlook for Bitcoin movements in the near future.
This material is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
