Fed Chair Warsh's Inflation Comments Fuel Bitcoin and Gold Recovery Ahead of Jobs Report

Bitcoin climbed above $61,000 and gold stabilized above $4,050 on July 2, 2026, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks have diminished — a remark that prompted a rapid reassessment of interest-rate hike expectations and boosted both assets simultaneously.

The June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is now the next major catalyst. Economists forecast a net gain of 110,000 jobs for June, a sharp deceleration from the 172,000 added in May. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to tick up to 3.5% from 3.4%. The actual print came in significantly below consensus: only 57,000 jobs were added in June, according to data released shortly after the market open.

A weaker labor market reading reduces workers' purchasing power, tends to suppress consumer demand and lowers demand-pull inflation pressures — all factors that would reinforce Warsh's assessment and diminish the case for aggressive rate increases by the Fed. That scenario also puts downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, benefiting assets seen as alternatives to fiat currencies.

Analysts note that positioning in dollar and rates markets is already heavily skewed to the bullish side, meaning a soft payrolls number could trigger a sharp reversal in the Dollar Index (DXY). Such a move would provide additional tailwind for bitcoin and gold as part of the so-called 'debasement trade' — a strategy in which investors rotate out of fiat currencies and into hard assets with limited supply.

Bitcoin's technical picture also offers a constructive signal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on BTC's daily chart is showing a bullish divergence: while the price fell to 21-month lows earlier in the week, dipping toward the $3,942 level in gold as well, the RSI held above its own recent lows. This divergence indicates that selling momentum is fading even as prices declined — a pattern traders typically interpret as a precursor to a potential trend reversal.

Conversely, a stronger-than-expected payrolls report — particularly a surprise on the wage growth side — could stall the nascent recovery quickly and reassert pressure on both bitcoin and gold.

In related market developments, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet purchased an additional 2,823 BTC worth approximately $170.7 million, bringing its total bitcoin treasury to 43,000 BTC, valued at roughly $2.6 billion. Separately, Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 blockchain built on Arbitrum, marking the brokerage's most significant move into onchain financial infrastructure and decentralized finance to date. OpenAI is also reported to be in discussions about offering the U.S. government a 5% equity stake as part of efforts to deepen ties with the Trump administration, according to the Financial Times.