Ethereum Monthly TD Sequential Buy Signal Emerges Amid Persistent ETF Outflows

Ethereum has posted gains of 8.05% over the past week and 4.9% in the last 24 hours, yet a rare monthly buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator has not been enough to resolve deep uncertainty around the asset's medium-term direction. Spot ETF outflows, lost support levels, and mixed on-chain data continue to cloud the bullish case.

TD Sequential Flashes Monthly Signal, But Context Differs

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted on X that July opened with a buy signal on the monthly timeframe from the TD Sequential indicator. The same signal appeared in September 2022 and March 2025 — occasions on which Ethereum subsequently rallied 235% and 182%, respectively. However, the broader market environment today shows little resemblance to those prior setups, making a straightforward comparison difficult.

ETH is currently trading around $1,500, having surrendered two major support levels in 2026 — first the $3,200 zone and then the $2,000 level. The MVRV extreme deviation band's lower boundary, set at one standard deviation below the long-term mean (-1.0σ) at $1,549, is now acting as the primary dynamic support.

Spot ETF Flows Remain Deeply Negative

Data from Farside Investors shows that Ethereum spot ETF flows since June 17, 2026, total a net negative $358.3 million. These sustained outflows reflect weak institutional conviction and reinforce the bearish sentiment that has dominated the leading altcoin throughout the year.

• Net ETF outflows since June 17, 2026: -$358.3 million
• Key support levels lost in 2026: $3,200 and $2,000
• Current price level: approximately $1,500
• MVRV -1.0σ dynamic support: $1,549

Derivatives Markets Show Short-Term Speculative Uptick

On-chain derivatives data from CryptoQuant indicates that the taker buy-sell ratio in perpetual swap markets has climbed back above 1.0 over the past two days, with its 7-day moving average also crossing above that threshold. This suggests that a portion of the recent price recovery has been driven by aggressive buyer orders rather than passive accumulation.

Open Interest has also edged higher, pointing to increased speculative participation. Should Open Interest continue to rise, conditions for a short squeeze may develop in the near term. Conversely, a stall or decline in Open Interest would suggest the bounce was primarily the result of short-position unwinding rather than genuine demand entering the market.

Outlook Remains Uncertain

The combination of a historically significant technical signal and bearish macrostructure — negative ETF flows, broken support levels, and a price still well below prior ranges — leaves Ethereum investors without a clear directional conviction. The TD Sequential monthly buy signal raises the possibility of a meaningful recovery, but the absence of positive ETF flow momentum and weak broader market sentiment mean that a deeper drawdown cannot be ruled out. Whether the current level represents a durable bottom will only become apparent over the coming weeks.