Software developer jobs for Americans aged 22 to 25 fell almost 20% by September 2025 compared to late 2022, coinciding with the rise of OpenAI's ChatGPT, according to Stanford Digital Economy Lab research.
The decline was particularly sharp in AI-exposed programming roles, which dropped 16%, while before ChatGPT's November 2022 launch, these jobs were expanding at nearly 5% annually. A Federal Reserve report from April 2026 revealed that overall US programming job growth halved post-ChatGPT, potentially reducing expected jobs by about 500,000 over three years.
Year-over-year job contractions for 22-to-25-year-olds reached 4.2% in AI-exposed fields, compared to only 1.7% in less AI-affected areas. The Stanford team described this as an "occupation-specific shock" impacting entry-level roles where young developers gain experience. Senior positions such as systems architects and machine learning experts did not see comparable layoffs.
However, a June 2026 study by Ramp and Revelio Labs covering over 21,500 US companies found that firms with higher AI investments actually grew their workforces by around 10%, with entry-level hiring increasing by approximately 12%. This suggests a split market: companies leveraging AI to scale operations required more staff, including junior employees, to support AI systems.
Despite some firms expanding teams, the overall net effect remains negative for early-career software developers. The trend highlights challenges for new entrants in programming roles amid rapid AI adoption.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
