Benjamin Cowen just dropped a sobering assessment. Crypto is trading at valuations not seen since 2010, when Bitcoin was barely moving. Yet according to the Into The Cryptoverse founder, this isn't the bottom.
Cowen measured the entire crypto market against his logarithmic regression trendline, and the gap is staggering. On July 31, the total market cap sat at $2.152 trillion. His model pegged fair value at $5.737 trillion. That leaves the sector 62.49% undervalued, or trading at just 37.52% of where it should be. The only time crypto fell lower was September 20, 2010, when it hit 32.72%.
The discount could actually widen even if prices stay flat, Cowen explained, since fair value keeps rising over time. Recent security breaches like the Coldcard hacks combined with fading retail momentum are piling on the pressure.
August has teeth
Here's where seasonality kicks in. Bitcoin gained 10.42% in July, but Cowen expects that relief rally to fade within weeks. The pattern is locked in across midterm election years. August and September went red in 2014, 2018, and 2022 the only months with negative average returns historically. Weakness hit early August 2018 and mid-August 2022, and Bitcoin is tracking the same trajectory this cycle.
Right now BTC trades around $62,648, down 45% over the past year. Bond yields rising again would be the accelerant. Cowen flagged a macro trigger: a similar yield move preceded Bitcoin's slide from July 2023, and the Fed is facing its most divided decision in years. "The bond market is starting to revolt," he said.
His base case calls for one more leg down in the third quarter before stabilization hits around November. On-chain models back that view.
This material is informational only and not investment advice. Do your own research and consult a financial professional before trading or investing.
