CLARITY Act Faces Shrinking Window: Galaxy Research Cuts Odds to 50/50

Galaxy Research has revised its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act's passage downward — from 60% to an even 50/50. The shift signals growing uncertainty around one of the most closely watched pieces of crypto legislation in the United States.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, pointed to a congested Senate schedule as the primary driver behind the downgrade. The situation was further complicated when President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he would refuse to sign a housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act — an entirely separate piece of legislation. This standoff is intensifying competition for limited Senate floor time, directly squeezing the CLARITY Act's chances of getting a vote.

The bill did clear a significant milestone last May when it passed the Senate Banking Committee, advancing it toward a full Senate floor vote. However, a critical procedural step still stands in the way: the separate versions of the bill drafted by the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee must be merged into a single unified text before any floor vote can take place.

On a somewhat encouraging note, Galaxy acknowledged that reconciliation talks between the two committees are continuing at the staff level, with indications of ongoing constructive negotiations. Nevertheless, Thorn was careful to temper expectations. No public agreement between the Banking and Agriculture committees has been announced, no unified legislative text has been released, and there is no confirmed timeline for a floor vote. Furthermore, several contentious issues — including stablecoin yield provisions, ethics clauses, and Section 604, which addresses developer protections — remain largely unresolved.

With the Senate scheduled to begin a two-week recess after the Fourth of July and returning on July 13, the clock is ticking. The August recess is set to begin in the second week of the month, which leaves roughly four weeks of active Senate sessions available. That narrow window is becoming increasingly critical.

The lobbying group Stand With Crypto, which is affiliated with Coinbase, has also raised the alarm. In a public statement, the group warned that if the Senate enters recess without voting on the bill, the CLARITY Act does not disappear but does lose momentum — and every passing day makes the path forward more difficult given the Senate's crowded agenda.

Meanwhile, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood weighed in on the disputed Section 604, advocating for what she described as a 'thoughtful, nuanced' approach — one that avoids driving crypto development and market activity offshore through overly restrictive regulation.

The bill's final text has not yet been made public, though sources suggest it could be released in early July. Without a scheduled floor vote and a publicly available finalized text, the four remaining weeks in the Senate calendar represent both the best and possibly last realistic opportunity for meaningful progress this legislative cycle.

In summary, Galaxy Research has cut its CLARITY Act passage odds from 60% to 50%, reflecting real concerns about timing and unresolved legislative hurdles. Cathie Wood has voiced support for Section 604 while calling for careful implementation. The outcome hinges on what happens — or doesn't happen — in the next four weeks.