Cardano's price slipped 1.39% to $0.1628 as traders intensified their short bets just two days before the anticipated Van Rossem hard fork. This decline occurred amid increased demand from large holders, or "whales," for the ADA token.
Despite being in a downtrend, whale wallets containing between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have reached their highest balances in 2023. This accumulation might indicate strategic positioning by these investors ahead of the network's significant upgrade.
Context of the Fork and Market Behavior
The Van Rossem hard fork, set to activate on July 18, 2026, is expected to reduce transaction costs, making operations on the Cardano network more affordable. The fork follows the Vasil update, which enhanced network performance and smart contract capabilities.
Market data indicates that ADA's weighted funding rate is currently at -0.0067%, meaning those holding short positions are compensating traders who expect a price rise. CoinGlass reports show the long-to-short ratio at 0.58 and open interest has increased by 4% to $421 million, suggesting that traders are still betting on further declines before the upgrade.
ADA's performance has fluctuated significantly, with recent trading showing an intraday low of $0.1611 and a high of $0.1664, extending a retreat from an earlier July peak near $0.195. This pressure from short positions is compounded by liquidity clusters around $0.160 and $0.170, which could influence ADA's next major movement.
Despite the bearish outlook reflected in the funding rates, there appears to be persistent buying interest, indicated by a slightly positive Chaikin Money Flow reading of 0.04, which suggests that despite the losses, buying pressure remains present. Cardano's governance approved the hard fork on July 13, aiming to enhance the network's capabilities and set the stage for future upgrades, including the Leios scaling update expected later this year.
This material is informational and should not be considered financial advice.
