Bitcoin prices have declined nearly 50% from a peak of $126,000 to around $64,000, with spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing $7 billion in outflows during May and June 2026 when BTC briefly fell below $60,000. Despite these losses, only 10% of spot Bitcoin ETF investors remain, which is less than the one-third retention rate seen in gold ETF holders during similar periods.

Gold ETFs as a Blueprint for Bitcoin ETF Behavior

Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, suggests that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs might follow the 'triumph and pain' pattern observed with gold ETFs. Gold ETFs reached the status of the world’s largest ETF briefly in 2011 but then entered an eight-year downtrend before reclaiming the top spot again in 2024, demonstrating a cycle of advances and setbacks. Balchunas expects Bitcoin ETFs to undergo similar phases, characterized by rapid gains, subsequent drawdowns, and recoveries that challenge investor patience.

Long-term Holder Supply and Market Resilience

Bitcoin's long-term holders show signs of resilience amid recent price volatility. According to Bitfinex analysts, the BTC dip below $60,000 stemmed from deleveraging and ETF outflows, but long-term holders have not yet become net sellers. Their 30-day net position remained positive even as ETFs lost nearly $4 billion in June, and inflows turned positive for three consecutive sessions afterward. However, concerns persist over the possibility of a shift if long-term holders begin selling.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Influences

Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have not triggered strong safe-haven demand for gold or Bitcoin ETFs in 2026. Over the last three months, gold ETFs saw approximately $11 billion in outflows, twice the $6 billion lost by spot Bitcoin ETFs. The impact of rising oil prices above $80 a barrel coincides with Bitcoin trading sideways under $65,000, suggesting energy market shocks could limit Bitcoin's upside momentum. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will serve as a hedge if the West Asia crisis intensifies in the third quarter.

This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.