Recent analysis by renowned cryptocurrency expert Benjamin Cowen indicates that Bitcoin's current behavior may lead to significant challenges for altcoins, echoing patterns observed during the 2018 bear market.
Market Analysis and Patterns
Cowen's assessment draws parallels between Bitcoin's price fluctuations in early 2026 and the downturn of 2018. Notably, both years experienced similar local lows in February, followed by higher lows in March and April. However, each time in May, Bitcoin faced resistance, resulting in a reduced peak.
As the analyst pointed out, a liquidity cleanup occurred in late June and early July, further mirroring previous market behaviors. Presently, Cowen emphasizes that risk appetite remains low, with minimal investment flowing into altcoins. He warns that history suggests that while Bitcoin may recover, altcoins could suffer severe losses, as was the case in 2018 when their values significantly diminished.
Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Altcoins
Cowen predicts that Bitcoin might retest resistance levels by late July or early August. Historically, such recoveries often reverse during August and September, suggesting possible upcoming volatility. He speculates that the bottom for Bitcoin could arrive earlier in this cycle, potentially by the end of September or early October.
Bitcoin currently sits between the 200-week moving average and a bear market resistance band, which could necessitate one final downward movement to reset on-chain data before a new bull run begins. Investors should prepare for continued fluctuations as the market adjusts its trajectory.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
