Analyst Levi Rietveld spotted something in Bitcoin's historical cycles that could matter for your portfolio right now. He's tracked a recurring pattern across multiple bull and bear phases: roughly 35 months of gains, then about 12 months of decline. If that rhythm holds, the current downturn, already 10 months deep, may have only weeks of weakness left before the next leg up.
The stakes are simple. That window could push Bitcoin below $60,000 one more time, creating a final buying opportunity before the market shifts. Rietveld waited four years to share this comparison because the data actually changed how he thinks about crypto cycles. The pattern isn't guaranteed, but it's consistent enough across past halvings to warrant attention.
Why Altcoins Get Dragged Along
Everything moves around Bitcoin. When it dips, altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana typically follow. Rietveld's point isn't that XRP has a specific price target coming. It's that major alts can outperform during bull phases but they stay vulnerable whenever Bitcoin leads the market lower. If Bitcoin's cycle theory holds and we're near the end of this bear phase, altcoins should bounce back alongside it.
The historical chart Rietveld references shows Bitcoin cycling through eight-month bulls, then 24-month rallies, then the longer 35-month expansions. Bear markets lasted five months, 14 months, and 12 months respectively. That 35-month boom followed by 12-month bust pattern appeared more than once, which is why he thinks it matters now.
What Changes If He's Right
Traders sitting on the sidelines waiting for sub-$60K Bitcoin might finally get their shot. If the pattern holds, that opportunity window could close soon after, marking the real inflection point for the next bull run. The risk is obvious: market cycles don't follow scripts, and external shocks can reset everything. But for investors who've been waiting for one final dip before committing fresh capital, the next few weeks matter more than the next few months.
This article is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
