August 5, 2026. Bitcoin's price metrics just entered their coldest stretch since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Glassnode's on-chain analysis platform says the cryptocurrency is now experiencing the longest capitulation period of this entire cycle, and the data is starting to look familiar to analysts who lived through the last bear market bottom.

The shift comes from Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, a tool that combines 45 different indicators into one overall health signal. When the tool turns blue, it means capitulation. When it flashes red, the market is running on momentum toward a peak. Throughout 2026 so far, the heatmap has stayed blue. But this latest phase is the deepest.

Rafael Schultze-Kraft, who built the tool, put it plainly: "Today is its coldest period since FTX: it's nearing the end of the bear market, but hasn't yet reached the deep blue that previously marked a bottom." The last time things got this cold was late 2022, when Bitcoin hit 15,600 dollars and the entire market felt like it might collapse. The color was darker then. This time, we're close but not quite there yet.

What's interesting is that underneath all the blue, network activity is actually strengthening. Daily active addresses and transfer volumes just shot past their upper statistical bands, meaning more people are moving coins around and using the network. It sounds counterintuitive. Capitulation on the charts while participation picks up on-chain.

The pattern from late July is worth watching. On July 31st, small transactions under 1 Bitcoin hit 39,600 coins moved in a single day. Compare that to November 16, 2022, right after FTX blew up, when the figure was 39,900. Nearly identical. Back then, retail investors and smaller holders were panic-selling at the bottom. Now we're seeing the same volume signature. Even after the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability shook confidence a few days ago, the outflows stayed orderly. No stampede.

Market participants showed resilience. That's what Glassnode's latest report emphasized. The network didn't collapse when bad news hit. It absorbed the shock and kept functioning. That's the kind of behavior you see when a market is finishing a capitulation, not starting one.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.