Bitcoin Falls Below 200-Week Moving Average for the First Time Since 2023, Triggering $320M in Liquidations

Bitcoin has officially closed a weekly candle beneath its 200-week moving average (WMA) — a technical threshold it has not breached since October 2023. This breakdown, widely considered one of the most significant warning signals in crypto markets, has sent shockwaves through leveraged trading desks and reignited fears of a prolonged bear cycle.

Within a single 24-hour window following the breakdown, over $320 million in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated. The 200-week moving average has long been treated by analysts as the definitive dividing line between sustained bull markets and extended crypto winters — making this week's candle close a deeply unsettling development for market participants.

Looking back at Bitcoin's 17-year track record, sustained weekly closes below the 200-week WMA have been vanishingly rare, appearing only at the absolute low points of major bear cycles. In 2015, Bitcoin spent several months grinding beneath the line before entering a prolonged accumulation phase. In 2018, a brief dip below the moving average coincided with the definitive bottom of the retail-driven bust. Between 2022 and early 2023, the cascading collapse of prominent crypto lenders and algorithmic stablecoins kept Bitcoin suppressed below the indicator for nearly six consecutive quarters.

What sets the current situation apart from these historical precedents is the dramatically different market composition. Institutional capital now plays a far more dominant role, and corporate treasury exposure to Bitcoin has grown substantially — factors that could either cushion the decline or amplify systemic risk depending on how events unfold.

Financial commentator and longtime gold advocate Peter Schiff has publicly flagged growing concerns about firms with massive Bitcoin holdings. Chief among them is MicroStrategy — increasingly referred to simply as "Strategy" in institutional circles — which reportedly holds approximately 847,363 BTC, acquired at an average cost basis of around $75,700 per coin. With Bitcoin's current price significantly below that threshold, these positions are drawing intense scrutiny from risk managers and market observers alike.

From a technical standpoint, analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $58,000 level and continues lower, there is little meaningful support until the August 2024 lows in the vicinity of $49,000. A failure to hold that zone could open the door to a macro retest of the previous cycle's all-time high near $20,000 — a scenario that would represent a catastrophic reset for the asset class.

According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin is currently trading approximately 53% below its all-time high, underscoring the severity of the ongoing drawdown.

Despite the grim technical picture, a segment of long-term bulls — often called "permabulls" — are framing this rare event as a generational accumulation opportunity, arguing that prior breakdowns below the 200-week WMA have consistently marked major market bottoms. Others remain cautious, warning that a deeper capitulation phase may still be necessary before a sustainable recovery can take hold.

The coming weeks are likely to be pivotal. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-week moving average or continues to slide will go a long way toward determining the trajectory of the broader crypto market for the remainder of 2026.