Bitcoin Dip or Deeper Drop? Why Analysts Are Split on BTC's Q3 Outlook
The crypto market has been rattled over the past three days, with approximately $1.8 billion in liquidations sweeping through the space, according to CoinGlass data. Over 75% of those wipeouts came from long positions, coinciding with Bitcoin's weekly decline of more than 5%. The selloff wasn't a shock to experienced traders — BTC had been hovering near the $60,000 mark for close to two weeks, giving leveraged longs time to stack up. Once that support cracked, a cascade of liquidations followed, flushing out traders who had been betting on upside continuation.
For some analysts, this kind of deleveraging is actually healthy. Prominent crypto analyst Ansem has officially flipped his Bitcoin stance from bearish to bullish heading into Q3, arguing that the market needed exactly this kind of reset. His thesis centers on the idea that excessive leverage has now been cleared, weak hands have been shaken out, and positioning is much cleaner than it was just weeks ago. If spot buyers re-enter the market, Bitcoin could regain momentum from a more stable foundation.
On the macro front, Ansem points to several tailwinds. A four-week rally in the U.S. dollar appears to be losing steam, rotation into gold is fading, and significant unrealized gains in AI-related assets could eventually redirect capital back into risk assets like Bitcoin. As macro uncertainty gradually eases, the broader market narrative is shifting toward a potential risk-on rotation.
However, not everyone is convinced the bottom is in. Fed rate hike expectations have climbed sharply — jumping from 11% to over 27% ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 29. That policy uncertainty adds a meaningful layer of risk to any near-term bullish Bitcoin thesis.
Perhaps more concerning is the data coming out of Glassnode. Bitcoin's slide to $59,100 has pushed approximately 10.83 million BTC into unrealized loss territory — the highest level ever recorded. Long-term holders (LTHs) currently control around 14.8 million BTC, representing roughly 75% of the circulating supply. Of that, about 37% is now underwater. When a significant portion of long-term holders find themselves sitting on losses, the risk of capitulation selling increases substantially.
Spot demand, a critical ingredient for any sustained Bitcoin rally, remains notably weak. Without a clear catalyst to drive fresh buying activity, framing the current pullback as a simple short-term flush may be premature. The combination of tepid demand, rising Fed rate expectations, and mounting LTH losses creates a risk environment that the market may be underpricing.
The bottom line is that Bitcoin's Q3 setup carries both opportunity and risk in roughly equal measure. Leverage has been cleaned up, and macro conditions show tentative signs of improvement — both positives for bulls. But weak spot demand, Fed policy headwinds, and record levels of BTC held at a loss paint a more cautious picture. Ansem's bullish call may ultimately prove correct, but the timing remains uncertain, and the case for further downside cannot be dismissed.
