Analysis Reveals 45,000 Polymarket Contracts with No Trading Activity
An analysis indicates that around 45,000 Polymarket markets had no trading volume, emphasizing the disparity in market activity on the platform.
According to a CNBC analysis, approximately 45,000 markets on Polymarket reported zero trading volume, revealing the uneven distribution of activity on the platform. The analysis highlights that 70% of closed markets between 2021 and May 2026 recorded under $10,000 in trading volume.
Trading Volume Insights
The report draws from Polymarket’s Gamma API data, which captures the notional volume for trades. It shows that less than 10% of closed markets attained volumes between $100,000 and $1 million. This indicates a concentration of trading in a limited number of high-profile contracts, while a significant percentage of markets remain inactive.
Bot Activity in Small Markets
Notably, bots contributed over 80% of the trading volume for markets valued under $10,000, as identified by Joshua Della Vedova, a business professor at the University of San Diego. He described bots as wallets that conduct more than 50 trades daily or exceed 1,000 trades overall. These bots reportedly earned around $1.2 million from these smaller markets, while their profits escalate dramatically in larger trading brackets, collecting approximately $50.5 million from markets between $1 million to $10 million.
World Cup Impact on Trading Volume
The contrasting data of inactive markets emerges alongside a surge in prediction market volume spurred by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Weekly trading volume across major platforms skyrocketed from $65 million at the beginning of June to $5.4 billion by June 29, marking a peak of $5.6 billion on June 22. Kalshi was noted as a leader in this surge, showcasing how sporting events can significantly drive demand in prediction markets.
The analysis also notes that Kalshi faced its own challenges with shallow markets, according to on-chain data from Dune Analytics. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi’s volume data only accounts for one side of each trade, potentially underrepresenting the market's overall activity.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have been approached for comment on these findings.
